Section 3 - The Great Replacement & Key pathway narratives

As defined in the introduction, the focus of Proactive Protection project is on the threat of a dominant conspiracy theory: the Great Replacement. The replacement process is said to be driven by nefarious globalists/foreign conspirators and supported by ‘naïve’ left-leaning cosmopolitans and NGOs who are portrayed as ‘traitors’1 . Based on the very strong feelings such a frame evokes, NGOs constantly get attacked and vilified2 .
 
To unpack this debate in Germany, we first dug into literature, surveys and analysis on the issues of trust in democracy and institutions3 , debates on position and roles of NGOs and civic space, conspiracy thinking4 and Great Replacement. This led us to identifying that the ‘traitor’ narrative is more at the extreme end of the spectrum of attacks on NGOs, but that there are 5 repeated “pathway” narratives that are the dominant stories/positions in the negative discourse around NGOs in Germany that act as the stepping stones to the more extreme position. Once we identified these narratives from the literature and media analysis, we also confirmed these patterns in consultation with multiple NGO partners and in a national survey in 2023 and focus groups in 2023 and 2024.
 
To be clear, it should be noted that there are also widely held positive narratives about civil society, but these more negative views are held more widely among those segments of society that are of interest for our project, i.e. those more disconnected, disenchanted and tend to be vulnerable to far-right thinking5 . The following diagram and detailed table break down the narrative picture of these pathways:
 

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Figure 4: Overview of common pathways to the ‘traitor’ narrative in 2023 
  

They break down as follows:

NGOs as Traitors – NGOs are depicted as a left-leaning cosmopolitan elite and naïve do-gooders conspiring with foreigners to destabilize state traditions and demographics.

Suspicion of NGO contact with terrorism - NGOs are portrayed as fronts for breeding and funding extremism, Islamism, and terrorism, and must be monitored and brought to justice.
Lines most often used in the frame:
  • Enemies undermining the state
  • Undermining with refugees & gender issues
  • Left, cosmopolitan, elitists
  • Naïve ‘Gutmensch (do-gooders)
  • Foreign agents (e.g. Soros)
 Lines most often used in the frame:
  • Fake NGO’s
  • Spreading extremism & terrorism
  • Naïve liberal supporters
  • ‘Kontakt Schuld’ (guilt by association with radicals)

NGOs promoting Open Borders - Helping the needy is fine, but NGOs are depicted as naive liberals want to open borders to all refugees, overwhelming the country and taking social services and jobs from deserving Germans.

NGOs as wasteful & incompetent - The government must improve in addressing social issues and stop wasting taxpayer money on ineffective NGOs.
Lines most often used in the frame:
  • Open borders to all refugees
  • Sea rescue boats
  • Naïve liberals overwhelm Germany
  • Loss of control & more insecurity
 Lines most often used in the frame:
  • NGOs wasting taxpayer money
  • Not effective
  • Sometimes corrupt
  • Useless government funding them
NGOs as too political - NGOs accused of breaking rules by engaging in politics should have their status revoked. NGOs as too radical & polarizing - Organisations like Last Generation are accused of extreme protests, breaking laws, disrupting daily life and emergency services, and should face justice for their actions.
Lines most often used in the frame:
•       NGOs crossing line into politics
•       Questioning role of NGO sector
•       Cases to remove non-profit status
•       Chilling effect for NGOs		 Lines most often used in the frame:
•       Anger about ”Klima Kleber” protests
•       Protestors as criminals
•       Obstructing everyday life/ambulances 
•       Heavy security responses & arrests


Figure 5: Detail of common pathway narratives and the ‘traitor’ narrative  in 2023
 

This 2023 frame map was a foundation for the project to have a better handle on narrative challenge and in the end, was also the route to finding the immunisation strategy, see Section 5.
 
It is worth noting how similar these narratives are to the playbook of narratives used more globally to shrink civic space (See the map of attack narratives in our guide: Safeguarding Civic Space). 

 

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